Wednesday, March 30, 2011

American League Preview: 1-14

By Pat Carroll
                                                              


                                                               1. Boston Red Sox
      Coming off one of the best offseasons in recent memory with the acquisitions of Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford and Bobby Jenks, the Red Sox have the pieces to win a World Series. Gonzalez will play pepper with the Green Monster, leading to many doubles and RBIs, while Crawford provides a spark on the base paths with his speed and power.  The rotation of Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, John Lackey, Daisuke Matsuzaka and veteran knuckleballer Tim Wakefield is one of the best in the league along with a bullpen that features Jenks, Daniel Bard and closer Jonathan Papelbon, who struggled in 2010. The tale of last season for the Sox was injuries with Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis, Jacoby Ellsbury and Josh Beckett all going down for lengthy spurts in '10. If they can remain healthy, look for Sox to make a deep postseason run.


                                                       2. New York Yankees
      The Yankees didn’t have nearly as much success in the offseason as their arch rivals up in Boston did, but they did retain a team that won 95 games last year and the AL Wild Card. The mixture of seasoned veterans and young talent will give the Yanks a dynamic line-up that has the potential to compete with the best of the American League. The Yankee rotation will miss Andy Pettitte, who retired in the offseason, but the addition of veteran Freddy Garcia will bolster a rotation that features ace C.C. Sabathia, A.J. Burnett and Phil Hughes. The bullpen remains centered around Mariano Rivera, but newcomers Rafael Soriano, Pedro Feliciano and Bartolo Colon will give the Yanks much needed depth in the later innings. Robinson Cano had an MVP-type season in 2010, hitting .319 with 29 home runs and 109 RBIs at a traditionally weak second base position.  If Cano can imitate (or improve) on last season, with the help of A-Rod, Mark Teixeira, Derek Jeter, Curtis Granderson and the supporting cast, the Yankees have the tools to make the postseason by winning the division or wild card.

    
      3. Minnesota Twins

      This may be a surprise pick for some but the Twins have a talented young team. However, their success is riding heavily on the pitching staff. Ace Francisco Liriano had a strong comeback season in 2010, finishing the year with a 3.62 ERA and 201 strikeouts, three years removed from Tommy John surgery. Carl Pavano took the team by storm with 17 wins and a 3.65 ERA, his lowest since 2004. Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey and young Nick Blackburn fill out the rotation with a balance of arms with while  Joe Nathan will  shut it down in the bullpen.  Offensively, the Twinkies finished 2010 in the top 10 in runs, batting average, on-base percentage (OBP), and slugging percentage. Justin Morneau's health, after sustaining a concussion in July will be a main factor if the Twins want to repeat their offensive efficiency. With a line-up that includes 2009 MVP Joe Mauer, Delmon Young, Jim Thome and Michael Cuddyer, Minnesota has the firepower to reach 90-95 wins.


                                                            4. Texas Rangers
     
      After reaching the World Series for the first time last season on the back of Cliff Lee, the Rangers proved they are the team to beat in the American League. Now with Lee shifting leagues for the Phillies, the pitching staff will have to make up (in what ways they can) for his absence. The addition of Brandon Webb will carry some of the load that Lee left. C.J. Wilson, who led the team in wins (15), ERA (3.35) and WHIP (1.19),  Colby Lewis and Scott Feldman each return from a rotation that was 10th in the MLB in ERA in 2010.  AL MVP Josh Hamilton tore up American League pitching last year, hitting .359 with 32 home runs and a slugging percentage of .633. Young phenoms Elvis Andrus and Neftali Feliz were key in the Rangers' run through October, with Andrus providing the offense and defense and Feliz adding late game pitching heroics, finishing the year with 40 saves. With production from veteran Michael Young, Nelson Cruz and Ian Kinsler, the Rangers have the weapons to take the AL West and compete for their second World Series appearance. 


     5. Chicago White Sox

     The White Sox have made great strides since they last won the World Series in 2005. Veterans from the '05 title team, Mark Buerhle and Paul Konerko are still producing as rich, young talent has made its way to the show. Last seaon, Konerko led the ChiSox in home runs (39), RBIs (111) and OPS (.977) while Buerhle won 13 games and had the best web gem of the year on Opening Day. The rest of the rotation is solid with John Danks (15 wins, 162 Ks, 3.72 ERA), Gavin Floyd (10 wins, 151 Ks, 4.08 ERA), and Edwin Jackson (10 wins, 181 Ks, 4.47 ERA) each winning 10+ games in 2010. Jake Peavy also is in the mix, after undergoing surgery for a detached muscle in his shoulder. If upon his return he can be effective, the White Sox will have another ace up their sleeve who can control his fastball and at times dominate an opponent. With the addition of power bat Adam Dunn and the continued development of Alexei Ramirez and Gordon Beckham, watch out for the White Sox to contend with the Twins and Tigers in a competitive AL Central.




      6. Oakland Athletics
      
     The frugal Oakland Athletics, under the ownership of Billy          Beane, have always been about building the farm system and keeping home-grown talent. And thats just what they've done. In 2010, the A's had one of the best and most underrated pitching staffs, from top to bottom, in all of baseball. Ranking in the top 6 in ERA, Quality Starts, WHIP and BAA, the A's feature a rotation of Trevor Cahill, who won 18 games last year, Brett Anderson, who has a nasty slider and can throw his fastball for strikes, Gio Gonzalez, who won 15 games and led the team in innings pitched (200 2/3) and strikeouts (171) and Dallas Braden, who pitched a perfect game on Mother's Day and is the veteran of this young staff. Along with the rotation, the bullpen features new additions Grant Balfour and Brian Fuentes to close the door. Talk about a whole lot of young talent in one rotation, thanks in part to Billy Bean's scouting abilities. The offense has been upgraded with newcomers Josh Willingham, David DeJesus and Hideki Matsui, who will each play key veteran roles in a relatively young line-up.  Pitching has always been a key to success for the A's and if their young arms can stay healthy, the A's have a chance to compete for the AL West division title or wild card berth.



                                         7. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

     After a season in which the Angels missed their first postseason since 2006 and finished with a record below .500, the sky is the limit for the Halos. With the offseason acquistions of pitcher Scott Downs and outfielder Vernon Wells, the Angels have a few new pieces that will hopefully put them over the hump and back into the playoffs. Featuring a formidable rotation led by Jered Weaver, Dan Haren, Ervin Santana and Joel Pineiro, the Angels will be able to compete with that of the Rangers and A's, who are maturing right before their eyes. Scott Kazmir's pitching woes have continued with his ERA rising in each of the past five seasons. The Angels success will rely heavily on the strength of their rotation and their consistency. Wells has always been known for his power and will look to be a complement with Torii Hunter to provide a spark in the line-up and to drive in runs. Five-tool Prospect Mike Trout will surely make an impact with the club when he's called up in May or June and if things go as planned, give the Angels another weapon in their arsenal come pennant race time.



                                                8. Detroit Tigers
    
     The Tigers are a team to look out for in an unpredicatable AL Central. Their hopes ride behind the bat of Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez and the arms of Justin Verlander, Rick Porcello, Max Scherzer and Brad Penny. Consistency and injuries will be the two main factors into whether the Tigers make the postseason or not.  The Tigers didn't make many moves in the offseason, but they made the right ones. Dumping Johnny Damon's salary to the Rays and adding veteran catcher Victor Martinez  were two of the main moves that hopefully will lead to a successful season. Verlander has looked better than ever, leading the Tigers in wins (18), ERA (3.37), strikeouts (219), and WHIP (1.16) and Porcello is starting to get the hang of pitching in the bigs. Offensively, the Tigers finished the 2010 season fifth in batting average and eigth in on-base percentage and will look to emulate those statistics in 2011. With a division so full of uncertainty, the Tigers will give the Twins and White Sox a run for their money but will  finish in third.



     9. Tampa Bay Rays

     How could a team with so much going for them drop to this spot? Well, the loss of Carl Crawford, Carlos Pena, Matt Garza and Rafael Soriano certainly has something to do with it. The Rays have been heavily competitive in the AL East over the past three seasons, making it to the World Series in 2008. However, they will take a step backwards this year. Aside from Evan Longoria, B.J. Upton and Ben Zobrist, the Rays' line-up consists of young guys or newcomers. Johnny Damon and Manny Ramirez were re-united in Tampa but both are past their primes and the odds of them having a great or even decent season is not very likely. The young, scrappy guys will be looking to make a name for themselves and hopefully a mainstay in the majors.  However, their rotation is very young and talented. David Price leads a staff of former top Rays pitching prospects, James Shields, Wade Davis, Jeff Niemann and newcomer Jeremy Hellickson. This unproven rotation can show signs of brilliance but their will definite growing pains throughout the game in different facets of each pitchers game. If the Rays can pitch and score runs, they can beat any team in the league. But that's a big if. When its all said and done, the Rays will finish up in a close third behind the Yankees.  



                                                      10. Toronto Blue Jays


     A lot has changed in Toronto over the past few years. The Jays more former ace Roy Halladay is now in the National League with the dangerous Phillies. Vernon Wells left for the West coast. Their more recent ace Shawn Marcum left for the Brew Crew. And the Blue Jays have been struggling to compete in the AL East. The Jays did, however, lead the league in slugging percentage thanks to a Jose Bautista. Bautista came into his own, leading the league in home runs (54) and leading the Jays in every slugging category known to man. Realistically, a season like that is a once in a lifetime, if once in a career feat. Along with Bautista, the Jays have some consistent bats in Adam Lind, Travis Snider and Aaron Hill, who will all have to be main contributors for this Jays team to have a shot at a division or wild card spot in the playoffs. The pitching for the Jays is not nearly what it was when Halladay was on the bump every fifth day but it has improved. Youth is the tale of the Jays' pitching rotation with Brandon Morrow, Ricky Romero, Kyle Drabek, Jesse Litsch and Jo-Jo Reyes all in their mid-20s. First year manager John Farrell, former Red Sox pitching coach, will have fun working this young staff into shape for a long road ahead. Given time, this Jays team can improve and compete, but this year expect them to finish the year in fourth ahead of the woeful Orioles. 



   


                                                      11. Baltimore Orioles

      The Orioles showed their disgruntled fans that they are trying to become a winning ballclub with their offseason moves. Vladimir Guerrero, Derrek Lee, Mark Reynolds, J.J. Hardy and Justin Duchscherer all flocked to Baltimore in the hopes of turning the AL East cellar dweller into a contender. Well, O's fans, don't count on it. At least not this season. Guerrero is on the decline in his career, and though he led the Rangers with 115 RBIs in 2010, the lack of a potent line-up in Baltimore will hurt his stats as he will not be able to drive in as many runs that he could in Texas. Derrek Lee has seen better days, Reynolds strikes out a lot and is usually in the top 5 in errors by season's end. However, Brian Matusz and Matt Wieters are the two main bright spots for the future of the franchise. Matusz, a 24-year old left-hander, showed promise in 2010, picking up 10 wins on a bad team, while striking out 143 batters. Look for him to improve in '11 in all facets of his game. Wieters struggled at times defensively behind the plate but was relatively success at the plate, finishing the year with 11 home runs and 55 RBIs. The former 1st round pick does, however, possess the skills and work ethic to make improvements to his power and hitting against lefties. Even with the drastic changes for the Orioles, they will finish at the bottom of the ever-competitive AL East for the fourth year in a row.










      12. Seattle Mariners

     Despite having the 2010 AL Cy Young award winner Felix Hernandez, the Mariners have a gigantic hole to dig out of if they want to compete in a suddenly strong AL West. Offensively in 2010, the Mariners were dead last in team batting average, runs scored, on-base percentage and slugging percentage. If not for King Felix, this team would be dead last on this list. The Mariners leader in home runs had 15 (Russell Branyan) and RBIs had 64 (Franklin Gutierrez). The complete lack of offense will be the reason for their near 100 losses that they will most likely pick up. From a pitching standpoint, the Mariners have a decent rotation led by Hernandez, Justin Vargas and Erik Bedard. However, with a lack of run support, it will be incredibly difficult for Mariners pitchers to hold leads and therefore, pick up wins (King Felix finished 2010 with a 13-12 record; had he received run support, he would have been a 20-game winner). With terrible offense and near mediocre pitching, the Mariners will finish 2011 well below .500 and fighting for a top pick in next year's first-year draft.   





     13. Cleveland Indians

     From being just a game away from a World Series appearance in 2007 to losing 93 games in 2010, the Cleveland Indians have almost completely gone full circle. Finishing in the bottom percent in nearly every batting and pitching category, the Indians have hardly any positives to take away. Outfielder Shin-Soo Choo led the team in batting average, home runs, runs, RBIs and OPS and pretty much single-handedly (with some help) carried the Indians' offense. Well, there is a bright side. Young talented catcher Carlos Santana and first baseman Matt LaPorta are in the bigs and will look to prove their worth this season in which the Indians will flirt with the 100 loss mark. The pitching rotation of Fausto Carmona, Justin Masterson and Mitch Talbot will struggle to earn run support on poor offensive club and the Indians will be endangered of losing franchise player Grady Sizemore when his contract runs out or he his dealt before the trade deadline. Other then that, I think the Indians will have a decent year, picking up 95 losses to top last years mark.


     


                                                    14. Kansas City Royals

      Most teams don't come back well after losing an ace pitcher. Especially teams, like the Royals. 2009 Cy Young winner Zack Greinke's absence will undoubtedly be felt. No longer can the Royals turn to a pitcher that even resembles an ace every fifth day. Last year's rotation, with Greinke, was nearly last in ERA, Quality Starts, WHIP and BAA. Former first round pick Luke Hochevar is now the front man in a rotation made up of veteran Bruce Chen, Kyle Davies, an injury-prone Jeff Francis and newcomer Aaron Crow. Look for another abysmal pitching season from the Royals, as a matter of fact, don't be surprised if the Royals have one of, if not the worst pitching staffs in the major leagues in 2011. Aside from Joakim Soria, Royals' pitching is in for a rough year. Offensively, the Royals are solid with Billy Butler, Jeff Francouer, Melky Cabrera, Mike Aviles and Kila Ka'aihue. One things for the sure: the Kansas City Royals' future is mighty bright with one of the best farm systems in major league history. So, a few years down the road, look out AL Central. Until then, the Royals will take their assigned seat at the bottom of the division.

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